It’s been over a month since Bittrex’s final deadline to withdraw Safe Exchange Coins before they completely remove it from the exchange (this is after 12 months grace period to withdraw after the delisting).
There is 64.9m Safe Exchange Coins (3% of supply) left in the Bittrex wallet. In theory, Bittrex shouldn’t be allowed to touch them (US legalities) meaning it’s safe to say they’re out of circulation now.
Add on top various stories of lost wallets / private keys, people passing, or even forgetting they even had Safex - I’d guess about 10% of supply is now completely out of circulation.
If these tokens are considered to be out of circulation, can I assume the the migration bonus coins (airdrop) are also considered to be out of circulation since there’s no migration going to take place? If not, what happens to these remaining airdrop coins?
This would also apply for the lost wallets, etc.
There are two sets of numbers in play here. The Safex Cash airdrop fund, and the Safex Tokens that are created when the burn transaction is performed.
Safex Tokens are only created on the new blockchain when a corresponding burn transaction of Safe Exchange Coins happens. The tokens are generated and credited to the user.
The Safex Cash “airdrop” coins come out of a 5m pot that was created in the genesis block. So for every 1 Safex Token created, 0.0023 Safex Cash is credited to the user also.
The difference is that whatever is remaining of this 5m supply after the migration deadline will be credited to the developer fund (but this is less than 0.5% of total supply).
This is NOT the case for Safex Token, however, as it’s only ever created when a burn happens.
So if only 1bn Safex Exchange Coins are burned, then only 1bn Safex Tokens will exist on the new blockchain. In turn, this means less Safex Tokens to re-distribute the marketplace fees, meaning more for everyone.
There’s probably some on Cryptopia and Trade Satoshi that will never get migrated as well.
Some of those are Bittrex’s own coins they earned from fees. It was like 0.25% per trade from safex to btc IIRC.
Now if volume was around 1 btc worth on average (sometimes much lower and many times higher) for the first year or so.
When safex was <20 (sometimes as low as 6 sats) for well over a year,
- that was average of more than 5 million safex per day
- that means 12,500 safex per day in fees
- or 4.5 million for the first year in fees
When safex was 20-60 sats, again for around 12 months in total and a corresponding higher average per day of BTC worth
- that is an average of at least 3 million per day
- or 7,500 per day
- or 2.7 million for the second year
Then after that it went crazy at times with nearly 100BTC some days traded at 60-800 sats
- for many months it was less than 500 sats and upto 100BTC per day
- 500 sats with 100BTC worth traded is 20 million per day and 50,000 in fees per day
- taking say 25,000 safex in fees per day for 4 months
- we get 3 million safex
Then there was another nearly a year. Lets just use 2.7 million fees
That totals 12.9 million back of envelope style maths
NOW withdrawal fees of ?10 safex and there has to have been 100K-1 million withdrawals over the 4 years. Thats at least another million safex in w/d fees and maybe up to 10 million
So over 14 million of that 64.9 million was fees etc and legitimately belongs to Bittrex.
Now I am also confident that under USA law there is a time period after which unclaimed goods/money becomes the property of the company. Bittrex has informed people via email to withdraw their safex and thus have fulfilled the notification requirements and now the question is what is the time period
Bittrex regularly sold the Safex they earned from fees/withdrawal etc… so although I agree a percentage might be theirs, I don’t think it’s as high as calculated.
I remember back in the day you used to be able to pinpoint the days they sold their fee holdings.
They’d have regularly sold and would have no doubt sold some before delisting whilst they still had liquidity.
Personally, I believe that the
dilution of supply is a negative thing; those are people who did not catch on to the purpose, and abandoned/didnt take seriously the opportunity; and if they did what kind of impact could they have made to the community.
A bigger slice of a smaller pie is less overall; take that into consideration, we’re better off helping others realize opportunities than limiting them, because in that way we dont share the glory and we hide our creation from others.
Bittrex knew during the last pump that safex was about to get delisted, they sold their chunk 100% they collect couple of thousands from withdrawals and sold on ts probably.